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Illa Effect

Illa Effect Would Lead PSC To Win Elections In Catalonia

The Socialist Party of Catalonia (PSC) would win the Catalan regional elections with 23.9% of the votes and between 30 and 35 seats, according to the Center for Sociological Research (CIS), which published its pre-election poll of the elections on Thursday to the Catalan Parliament, initially scheduled for February 14 .

ERC, with a 20.6% vote estimate, would be the second force, obtaining between 31 and 33 seats. The results would already reflect the effect among the voters due to the change of candidate of the Socialists, from Miquel Iceta to Salvador Illa, current Minister of Health, announced by surprise at the end of December.

The CIS poll leaves the door open to a possible government between the PSC and ERC with an absolute majority (68 seats), if its best results are confirmed according to the survey, carried out between January 2 and 15 with a sample of 4,106 interviewees. The Socialists could even double their numbers since the 2017 elections, in which they won 17 seats.

Junts per Catalunya (JxCat) would be third force, going from 34 on 21-D to a range of between 20 and 27 seats; while the CUP would add 8 to 11 seats. These data lower the expectations for the independence movement, which would achieve between the three parties from 59 to 71 deputies (currently they have 70).

The poll also shows a clear rise in Vox, which could enter the Parliament with between 6 and 10 seats, even above the PP, which would remain with 7 deputies. The popular ones improve their data compared to 2017, when it obtained only four weighed down by the Citizens effect .

The formation led by Inés Arrimadas, winner of the last regional elections held on December 21, 2017 with her as a candidate, would collapse from the current 36 to 13 or 15 seats. In Comú Podem it would obtain between 9 and 12 seats, improving the eight it currently has.

The CIS vote estimate overturns the polls of the Generalitat’s Center for Opinion Studies (CEO) , which in December predicted that ERC would win the elections by going from 32 seats to between 38 and 39 deputies.

The Catalan barometer predicted an improvement in the three pro-independence forces —ERC, Junts per Catalunya and the CUP— that would expand their absolute majority of the current 70 deputies to between 75 and 80.

Minister Salvador Illa is also ranked as the politician best valued by those surveyed, with an average score of 5. They are followed by Laura Borràs, Junts candidate, and Pere Aragonès, acting president of the Generalitat and head of the ERC list, both with a 4.6.

The poll is known before the start of the electoral campaign, although the elections scheduled for February 14 are still in the air.

The Government decided to postpone the elections to May due to the advance of the pandemic and the restrictions imposed on the population to stop the third wave, but the Superior Court of Justice of Catalonia has left the postponement on hold until resolving the appeals against the decision of the Generalitat .

Whether or not there are elections on February 14, the body led by José Félix Tezanos has published a study that has been preceded by a specific fieldwork on Catalonia over the last monthly barometers.

Since November, the CIS has included a reinforcement of the sample in Catalonia, with more interviews than in its ordinary monthly studies, claiming that in this way it would “be able to provide more data to public opinion” in anticipation of holding regional elections in that community , announced after the disqualification of Quim Torra .

In the December opinion barometer of the CIS, ERC was still in the lead in direct intention to vote , but there was a decline of the Republicans in favor of Junts.

The PSC, for its part, appeared consolidated as the first non-independence alternative, just two weeks before, on December 30, it was announced by surprise that Minister Illa would be the candidate of the Socialists in the elections.

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